Monday, September 13, 2010


While the number of venture capital firms shrink, and a double whammy is upon the industry as the dollars allocated to the asset class are reduced at a greater amount, we seem to be in the midst of a profound change in the Information technology industry which is poised to create great value for users and shareholders too. As the micro revolution dwarfed the mainframe market, and the internet blew the doors off the micro software equity returns, the shift to mobile and social seem predestined to greatly eclipse its ancestors.

Here's some data from Morgan Stanley Research to support the magnitude of the shift:

The tablet forecast for '11 was just raised from 37mm to 50mm units; this is a market that really did not exist 6 months ago.

Tablets are slowly cannibalizing PC's in the consumer market and vitualization is attacking the enterprise numbers (albeit with 375mm units expected to ship in '11). Importantly, iPad users view 3x the page views of iPhone users, a rate which is nearly equal to the page views presented to desktops.

Bberry internet usage is 10% of iPhone usage...

Daily Android phone activations have reached 200,000 worldwide, Yes, daily.
Daily iPhone activations have reached 150,000 worldwide...daily iPad shipments are near 100,000

Per IDC:

In the past 7 quarters, Android's mobile market share has gone from zero to 16%; Blackberry is 18%;Apple is 15% (They are the only folk only on one's really hurting them now and the opening of the platform to Flash and other applications is but a minor course change).
Symbian (Nokia) is the leader with a 40% market share....but it's in free fall.

Oh, MSFT is mired at a 7% market share. Worse than that, I can't imagine folk are downloading a host of their applications or web properties to non-msft devices. Despite massive internal investments, they've lagged for 5 years and, if they don't act, will lose the window (hehehe). Therefore, I really expect them to use their capital to change the game, and to do it quickly; and smartly.

The platform changes predestine application shifts that are even greater. Today's New York Times speaks to the shift from the web back to applications. Mining location, relationships and history to deliver relevance is a real win for all. Exposing the 'implicit' web is scary, yet energizing. I suppose you don't have to look much deeper than Coca Cola's page on Facebook to see the unrealized potential. 13mm 'friends', and a whole new challenge how to create a win/win for these relationships to thrive.

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